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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
Sunday, 18 August 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP : ON POSITIVE DIRECTION ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 1.83 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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