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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the frei ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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