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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 16 September 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: STABLE TO STEADY
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 16 September 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAP STRUGGLING TO FINDS THE RIGHT PATH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 0.75 percept month on month on Friday 13 Septe ...
Sunday, 15 September 13
CAPE FREIGHT RATES RISE ON HIGH DEMAND AND TIGHT AVAILABILITY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The BDI, Cape and Panamax indices are continued to rise and saw a steep surge with average index in these segments up around 25 pct w ...
Friday, 13 September 13
US COAL OUTPUT SLIPS 3.34% ON-WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 13 September 13
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA REVISED UP COAL PRICE REFERENCE TO US$ 76.89
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised up its owned coal bench mark price by US$ 0.19/ MT to US$ 76.89 for September 2013 deliveries ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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