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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 12 September 13
PANAMAX : PACIFIC ROUNDS ARE NOW REPORTED BETWEEN USD 13K AND 15K PER DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore is a key support SE Asia/Feast rate at the moment; vessel in N.China were fixed around USD 11-12k, ships in mid China can expect a ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
CAPESIZE MARKET WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com : While it is no secret that current capesize availability has become tight and has caused capesize rates to surge, availability is set ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET RALLY COMES AT A GOOD TIME FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of the dry bulk market has helped offset other lingering factors, which otherwise, could have plunged freight rates to new lows. Fo ...
Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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