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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 06 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW YEAR-HIGHS ON THE BACK OF INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been on the rise once again, but this time around any new increase of freight rates translates into new year-highs, thus bri ...
Friday, 06 September 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 90.80 MMST OF COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS UP BY 6.72 PERCENT IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi grade coal exporter shipped 35.268* million tons of coal in July 2013. Indonesian coal exp ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
HANDY: NICKEL ORE WAS PUSHING THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Nickel Ore was pushing the Feast market, several ships were fixed from low teens to $14k. Indo/India was still supported by bauxite, while th ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A HIGH ROLL, MAINLY THANKS TO CAPESIZE APPETITE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize owners have been rejoycing on the back of renewed optimism for the further rise in the dry bulk market's freight rates, especially when on ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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