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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 20 September 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 20.30 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 20 September 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 31.14 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN H1
COALspot.com : Colombia’s coal exports fell by 20.59 percent in June 2013 compared to Colombia’s May's export of 7,633,579 MT.
Colom ...
Thursday, 19 September 13
CAPESIZE : AVERAGE DAILY EARNINGS HAVE GAINED ALMOST USD 6K WOW - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down a bit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept carg ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
IRON ORE AND ZINC ARE BEST PERFORMING MINING SECTORS IN CURRENT LOW PRICE, HIGH COST ENVIRONMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
With the fall in commodity prices, cash margins in the mining industry have come under pressure. Accordingly, producers and investors are placing in ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUED TO ADVANCE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market continued to advance at a very fast pace, with the BDI closing off the week north ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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