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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 22 September 13
BDI STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES JUMP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued its upward trend and maintaining the moment with BDI and Cape index up by 16 pct week on week. The Capesi ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ADVANCE
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 2.09 percept month on month on Friday 20 September 2 ...
Friday, 20 September 13
SHIP OWNERS INVEST MORE THAN $9.2 BILLION ON NEW BUILDING VESSELS DURING AUGUST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that August is traditionally a slow month in terms of ships investment activity, ship owners have grasped this year the opportunity ...
Friday, 20 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW HEIGHTS THIS WEEK STANDING AT THREE-YEAR HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The biggest rally of the dry bulk market in more than three years have brought back joy among ship owners, especially those active in the Capesize m ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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