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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of mark ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
RBCT'S COAL EXPORT DECLINES IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal in South African as well as in the world has shipped 16. ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
CAPES TOUCHING RATES NO ONE BELIEVED COULD BE ACHIEVED IN 2013 - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
IS IT TIME AGAIN TO SUPERSIZE AGAIN? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
After an early arrival of the seasonal rally in the Capesize market, things look to be on the upbeat for these dry bulk giants. With the Index reach ...
Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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