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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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