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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with t ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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