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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 07 November 13
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY'S RISING WATER CHALLENGE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Water poses a variety of business risks for the energy industry, and could play an influential role in shaping the future energy supply mix, accordi ...
Thursday, 07 November 13
HANDY : INDO/CHINA ROUNDS ARE SEEING BIDS AT AROUND $16K
Handy
In the Atlantic we have seen more activity this week with several fixtures being concluded at firm rates. USG/Feast been reported at 30k and ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS LOST GROUND WHILE SUPRAS AND HANDIES HELD ON TO THEIR GAINS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable- )
A mirror image of the week prior for the Dry Bulk market, as once more the bigger size segments los ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has ...
Tuesday, 05 November 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SEES DROP IN COAL EXPORTS W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 4, Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.77 m ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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