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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 May 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON SPENDING ON NEWBUILDINGS AS PRICES ARE DEEMED TOO LOW TO RESIST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It's been yet another week on increased newbuilding ordering activity with Hellenic ship owners appearing rathe active, on the back of attractive f ...
Tuesday, 28 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 9.76 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 27 MAY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,420,366 tons of coal for week ended 0700 hours 27 May 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. said ...
Sunday, 26 May 13
AMPLE SUPPLY, LOW DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.07 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment los ...
Friday, 24 May 13
ENGAGEMENT WITH POTENTIAL STRATEGIC AND OFF TAKE PARTNERS ACCELERATING - REALM RESOURCES
COALspot.com - Following the recent completion of the Feasibility Study, the Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has focused on securing strategic ...
Friday, 24 May 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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