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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 12 October 13
PANAMAX: OWNERS ARE AT US$ 17-18.5K PER DAY; CHARTERERS ARE AT US$ 15.5-16K - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The futures market was heavily down on the cape size vessels and the physical average charterer rates on cape size vessels dropped by ...
Friday, 11 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATE POSITIVE MOMENTUM TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGHER DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO released its latest short term research on the shipping markets, estimating that the elevated level of Capesize TC average rates i ...
Friday, 11 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7.70% IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 17.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
NPC AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 2.99 MILLION TONS OF COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.04 per cent week on week to 2.99 million mt for ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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