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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 14 March 13
SHIPPERS AND CARRIERS NEED GREATER COMMUNICATION AND MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING
Press Release – Shippers and shipping lines both need to raise their game if global container supply chains are not to be habitually subject t ...
Wednesday, 13 March 13
NEWBUILDING PRICES EXHIBIT NO FALL IN PAST SIX MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that oversupply has been the key plague of the shipping markets in recent years and newbuilding ordering activity has receded subst ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
COAL MINING PRIVATIZATION IN INDIA: MUST - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - India has the one of the richest coal reserves in the world and the country should have shown significant progress and gained the pos ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.47 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 11 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,471,080 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 March 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 11 March 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.41 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 1.41percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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