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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
INDIA HAS INCREASED CUSTOMS DUTY AND COUNTERVAILING DUTY FOR POWER PLANT COAL
COALspot.com : The government of India raised basic customs duty and countervailing duty on steam coal. In the meantime government has reduced& ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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