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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 21 March 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT $ 9000 + 300K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains firm with cargoes seen to support healthy rates as per last week. The USG-Feast was at USD 25k and Black Sea-Feas ...
Wednesday, 20 March 13
NTPC TO IMPORT SEVEN MILLION TONS COAL FOR FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com : NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company has awarded&n ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
CHINA GAS PRICE REFORMS AND APAC GAS PRICING - FITCH STREET VIEW
Fitch Ratings says pricing reform in the Chinese gas sector is unlikely to materially impact gas distributors' margins, and low gas prices in the U ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL BY 4.27 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,365,561 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 March 2013, Newcast ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
SHIP PRICES COULD BE CLOSING IN TO REACH THEIR BOTTOM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the latest developments in shipping asset prices has been the reluctance from shipyards to further reduce their price expectations to higher ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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