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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 17 March 13
A WEAK WEEK FOR SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 2.11 percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
COAL FREIGHT RATES STEADY ON HIGHER DEMAND - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 5.81 pct closing at 892 points. Cape index was up ...
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as att ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SUPRAMAX : INDO - INDIA TRIP RATE IS AROUND $10,000; SOUTH CHINA $9500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Indian market is still quiet in respect of export of iron ore. WC India market has improved with a few stems out of the MEG, WC India opening ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has maintained its rising momentum, on the back of increased cargo availability. According to yesterday's figures, the industry ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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