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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 29 March 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UP 0.55 % WOW; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT: UP 0.23 % WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.55 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Thursday, 28 March 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON ACQUIRING SECOND HAND TONNAGE, AS WELL AS NEW BUILDINGS IN CONVENTIONAL SEGMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), coupled with renewed optimism, at least in some parts of the wet market, have prompted many ship own ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
PTBA HAS CONCLUDED US$ 16.14 BILLION WORTH OF COAL SALES AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH PLN
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, a 32 years old Indonesian state owned coal miner has signed a coal sales and purchase agreement with PT PLN, (a state ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry recovered to their highest level for two years in the three months ended February 2013, according ...
Tuesday, 26 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.39 MMT OF COAL W/E 25 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2.396 million tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 March 2013, N ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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