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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 04 April 13
HANDY:QUIET ; PANAMAX: SLOW START; CAPESIZE: LOW ACTIVITIES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain quiet as charterers and owners waiting to see how it moves. The USG-Feast was at USD 20k and Black Sea-Feast was ...
Wednesday, 03 April 13
HBA HAS LOST US$ 1.53 PER MT IN APRIL 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $1.53 / MT in April 2013.
The monthly coal referen ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 633K MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,029,482 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 1 April 2013, Newcas ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
THE GOVERNORS TO TAKE OVER AUTHORITY OF MINING, FORESTRY AND PLANTATION CONCESSIONS
The Indonesian government is planning to transfer the authority of issuing mining, forestry and plantation concessions from municipalities and distr ...
Sunday, 31 March 13
COAL FREIGHTS ARE IN FLAT TO WEAK TREND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market after several weeks of firming up seemed to lose steam and this week all the indices were down except for handy s ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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