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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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