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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 05 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A HIGH ROLL, MAINLY THANKS TO CAPESIZE APPETITE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize owners have been rejoycing on the back of renewed optimism for the further rise in the dry bulk market's freight rates, especially when on ...
Wednesday, 04 September 13
RBCT SHIPPED 16.18 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal South African as well as in the world has shipped 6,162, ...
Wednesday, 04 September 13
SUPRAS AND HANDIES : INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES ARE SUPPORTING HEALTHY ACTIVITY LEVELS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has pooled back a bit this week after firming for two weeks in a row. The BDI is s holding above 1,100 points and despite the sm ...
Tuesday, 03 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 22.93 PER CENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 22.93 per cent week on week to 3.39 million mt for ...
Sunday, 01 September 13
COAL SWAP SHOWS MIXED TREND
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery 1.25 percent up month on month. The swap was moved posit ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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