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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
Friday, 06 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW YEAR-HIGHS ON THE BACK OF INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been on the rise once again, but this time around any new increase of freight rates translates into new year-highs, thus bri ...
Friday, 06 September 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 90.80 MMST OF COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS UP BY 6.72 PERCENT IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi grade coal exporter shipped 35.268* million tons of coal in July 2013. Indonesian coal exp ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
HANDY: NICKEL ORE WAS PUSHING THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Nickel Ore was pushing the Feast market, several ships were fixed from low teens to $14k. Indo/India was still supported by bauxite, while th ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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