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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the frei ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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