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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 27 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 15.59 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 15.59 per cent week on week to 2.76 million mt for ...
Monday, 26 August 13
CARRIAGE OF COAL CARGOES FROM KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
The Club has recently been advised by consulting scientists and engineers Dr J H Burgoyne and Partners (International) Limited that the number of in ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 2.39 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET S7 & S8 SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY/FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to be firm with all indices moved positive except for Panamax which was slightly down (2 pct down).
T ...
Friday, 23 August 13
US PRODUCED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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