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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 16 September 13
WHAT RECOVERY MEANS FOR THE CAPESIZE MARKET - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: The simple fact that capesize rates have been able to increase above the $9,000/mark and become much more responsive to changes in car ...
Monday, 16 September 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: STABLE TO STEADY
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 16 September 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAP STRUGGLING TO FINDS THE RIGHT PATH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 0.75 percept month on month on Friday 13 Septe ...
Sunday, 15 September 13
CAPE FREIGHT RATES RISE ON HIGH DEMAND AND TIGHT AVAILABILITY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The BDI, Cape and Panamax indices are continued to rise and saw a steep surge with average index in these segments up around 25 pct w ...
Friday, 13 September 13
US COAL OUTPUT SLIPS 3.34% ON-WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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