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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 21 March 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT $ 9000 + 300K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains firm with cargoes seen to support healthy rates as per last week. The USG-Feast was at USD 25k and Black Sea-Feas ...
Wednesday, 20 March 13
NTPC TO IMPORT SEVEN MILLION TONS COAL FOR FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com : NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company has awarded&n ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
CHINA GAS PRICE REFORMS AND APAC GAS PRICING - FITCH STREET VIEW
Fitch Ratings says pricing reform in the Chinese gas sector is unlikely to materially impact gas distributors' margins, and low gas prices in the U ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL BY 4.27 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,365,561 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 March 2013, Newcast ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
SHIP PRICES COULD BE CLOSING IN TO REACH THEIR BOTTOM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the latest developments in shipping asset prices has been the reluctance from shipyards to further reduce their price expectations to higher ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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