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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 25 March 13
BUNKER FUELS ARE ABOUT TO GET CLEANER, BUT AT WHAT COST? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The cost of bunkers is nowadays the driving force behind most ship owners' major decisions, with regulations bound to change in many parts of the w ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA'S COAL SWAPS FOR Q2 DELIVERY PRICE LOST 7.47 PERCENT PMT M-O-M
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 3.39 percent and CFR South China coal shipment 2.65 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
FREIGHT MARKETS CONTINUED TO FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments except for cape index which softened slightly.
The BDI was up by 4.60 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS OFFER ROOM FOR RESTRAINED OPTIMISM SAYS SHIP OWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its announcement regarding its annual performance, ship owner Frontline offered some useful insight on the future prospects of both the dry bulk ...
Saturday, 23 March 13
WORLD COAL TRADE FIRST PASSES 1 BILLION TONS IN 2012 - VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V
Press Release: Hard coal imports to Germany on the previous year's level in spite of regenerative energies. Imports for power plants at an all-time ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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