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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 25 March 13
BUNKER FUELS ARE ABOUT TO GET CLEANER, BUT AT WHAT COST? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The cost of bunkers is nowadays the driving force behind most ship owners' major decisions, with regulations bound to change in many parts of the w ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA'S COAL SWAPS FOR Q2 DELIVERY PRICE LOST 7.47 PERCENT PMT M-O-M
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 3.39 percent and CFR South China coal shipment 2.65 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
FREIGHT MARKETS CONTINUED TO FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments except for cape index which softened slightly.
The BDI was up by 4.60 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS OFFER ROOM FOR RESTRAINED OPTIMISM SAYS SHIP OWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its announcement regarding its annual performance, ship owner Frontline offered some useful insight on the future prospects of both the dry bulk ...
Saturday, 23 March 13
WORLD COAL TRADE FIRST PASSES 1 BILLION TONS IN 2012 - VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V
Press Release: Hard coal imports to Germany on the previous year's level in spite of regenerative energies. Imports for power plants at an all-time ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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