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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 29 March 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UP 0.55 % WOW; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT: UP 0.23 % WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.55 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Thursday, 28 March 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON ACQUIRING SECOND HAND TONNAGE, AS WELL AS NEW BUILDINGS IN CONVENTIONAL SEGMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), coupled with renewed optimism, at least in some parts of the wet market, have prompted many ship own ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
PTBA HAS CONCLUDED US$ 16.14 BILLION WORTH OF COAL SALES AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH PLN
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, a 32 years old Indonesian state owned coal miner has signed a coal sales and purchase agreement with PT PLN, (a state ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry recovered to their highest level for two years in the three months ended February 2013, according ...
Tuesday, 26 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.39 MMT OF COAL W/E 25 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2.396 million tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 March 2013, N ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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