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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 29 March 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UP 0.55 % WOW; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT: UP 0.23 % WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.55 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Thursday, 28 March 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON ACQUIRING SECOND HAND TONNAGE, AS WELL AS NEW BUILDINGS IN CONVENTIONAL SEGMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), coupled with renewed optimism, at least in some parts of the wet market, have prompted many ship own ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
PTBA HAS CONCLUDED US$ 16.14 BILLION WORTH OF COAL SALES AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH PLN
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, a 32 years old Indonesian state owned coal miner has signed a coal sales and purchase agreement with PT PLN, (a state ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry recovered to their highest level for two years in the three months ended February 2013, according ...
Tuesday, 26 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.39 MMT OF COAL W/E 25 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2.396 million tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 March 2013, N ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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