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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Monday, 24 June 13
INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY GAINS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Coal prices for immediate supply contracts have started moving up, but prices for next year supply shows a negative trend ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
BDI CROSSED ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The BDI crossed the psychological barrier of 1000 points after many months and closed at 1,027 points, which were up by 14.11 pct wee ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, i ...
Friday, 21 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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