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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 24 February 13
COAL SWAPS INCH UP WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.17 percent and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
BDI FELL 1.72 PERCENT BUT FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady this week but, BDI fell1.72 pct and closed at 740 points.
The cape index also joins BDI ...
Saturday, 23 February 13
IHS MCCLOSKEY 20TH ANNUAL COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
IHS McCloskey 20th Annual Coal Conference of the Americas to be held on 13-14 March 2013 in Cartagena, Colombia
IHS is pleased to invite you to t ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
HANDY : THE PACIFIC MARKET GOT FIRMED UP AS CHINESE CAME BACK FROM HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week but rates remained unchanged as lot of ships in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Bla ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
SPRING COAL PROCUREMENT 2013 IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE
In 2012, “Steady Growth” had set the keynote for China’s economic development. Guided by the principle of progressing steadily, do ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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