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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 24 February 13
COAL SWAPS INCH UP WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.17 percent and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
BDI FELL 1.72 PERCENT BUT FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady this week but, BDI fell1.72 pct and closed at 740 points.
The cape index also joins BDI ...
Saturday, 23 February 13
IHS MCCLOSKEY 20TH ANNUAL COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
IHS McCloskey 20th Annual Coal Conference of the Americas to be held on 13-14 March 2013 in Cartagena, Colombia
IHS is pleased to invite you to t ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
HANDY : THE PACIFIC MARKET GOT FIRMED UP AS CHINESE CAME BACK FROM HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week but rates remained unchanged as lot of ships in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Bla ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
SPRING COAL PROCUREMENT 2013 IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE
In 2012, “Steady Growth” had set the keynote for China’s economic development. Guided by the principle of progressing steadily, do ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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