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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Roth ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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