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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
Tuesday, 12 February 13
GOVERNMENT DECLARED INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE INCHES UP IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in February 2013.
The monthly coal refere ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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