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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Monday, 11 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.01 PERCENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,967,761 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 February 2013, Newc ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
INDONESIA SUB-BIT SWAPS: "UP" - CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: "DOWN"
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.72 percent W-O-W and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
DRY BULK OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE SEEN WANING IN THE COMING MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It seems that the tide could be shifting in the dry bulk market, in terms of tonnage oversupply, according to the latest data figures. This could ex ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
HIGHER BUNKER PRICE PUSHES SEA FREIGHTS FIRM - REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all at same levels with Chinese year holidays next week.
The BDI was slightly down by 0.27 pct ad ...
Friday, 08 February 13
NORTH P&I CLUB WARNS OF LIQUEFACTION RISK FOR BAUXITE CARGOES
The ‘A’ rated 170 million GT North P&I club has warned shipowners carrying bauxite aluminium ore cargoes that they have the potentia ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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