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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Monday, 11 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.01 PERCENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,967,761 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 February 2013, Newc ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
INDONESIA SUB-BIT SWAPS: "UP" - CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: "DOWN"
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.72 percent W-O-W and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
DRY BULK OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE SEEN WANING IN THE COMING MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It seems that the tide could be shifting in the dry bulk market, in terms of tonnage oversupply, according to the latest data figures. This could ex ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
HIGHER BUNKER PRICE PUSHES SEA FREIGHTS FIRM - REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all at same levels with Chinese year holidays next week.
The BDI was slightly down by 0.27 pct ad ...
Friday, 08 February 13
NORTH P&I CLUB WARNS OF LIQUEFACTION RISK FOR BAUXITE CARGOES
The ‘A’ rated 170 million GT North P&I club has warned shipowners carrying bauxite aluminium ore cargoes that they have the potentia ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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