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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Thursday, 21 February 13
SPRING COAL PROCUREMENT 2013 IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE
In 2012, “Steady Growth” had set the keynote for China’s economic development. Guided by the principle of progressing steadily, do ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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