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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Thursday, 07 February 13
CHINA NDRC APPROVED 10 BILLION YUAN POWER GENERATION PROJECTS
NDRC of China currently announced that some of power grid and power station in Jiangxu, Sichuan and Anhui Province would be newly constructed or ext ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CAPESIZE : MORE ACTIVE WEEK IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
WEAK STEEL MARKET MEANS IRON ORE RALLY LIKELY TO END SOON - FITCH
The sharp rebound in iron ore prices over the last couple of months will hurt margins at non-integrated steel producers in the first quarter of 2013 ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
THE SHIPPING SECTOR IS " NAVIGATING IN STORMY WATERS" - PWC
The vulnerabilities of the global economy have been exposed and have more than played their part in making 2011 one of the worst years of shipping i ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 10.77 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,412,497 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 4 February 2013, Newca ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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