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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Thursday, 07 February 13
CHINA NDRC APPROVED 10 BILLION YUAN POWER GENERATION PROJECTS
NDRC of China currently announced that some of power grid and power station in Jiangxu, Sichuan and Anhui Province would be newly constructed or ext ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CAPESIZE : MORE ACTIVE WEEK IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
WEAK STEEL MARKET MEANS IRON ORE RALLY LIKELY TO END SOON - FITCH
The sharp rebound in iron ore prices over the last couple of months will hurt margins at non-integrated steel producers in the first quarter of 2013 ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
THE SHIPPING SECTOR IS " NAVIGATING IN STORMY WATERS" - PWC
The vulnerabilities of the global economy have been exposed and have more than played their part in making 2011 one of the worst years of shipping i ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 10.77 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,412,497 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 4 February 2013, Newca ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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