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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
Tuesday, 12 February 13
GOVERNMENT DECLARED INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE INCHES UP IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in February 2013.
The monthly coal refere ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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