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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
Tuesday, 12 February 13
GOVERNMENT DECLARED INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE INCHES UP IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in February 2013.
The monthly coal refere ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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