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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 55.88 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 3 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,796,341 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 December 2012, Newca ...
Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1 2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW respectively ...
Saturday, 01 December 12
TIGHT SUPPLY, DEMAND PUSH INDO-INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES HIGHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed this week as cape and Panamax indices are closing softer.
The BDI was down 0.37 pct closing at 1,086 ...
Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, i ...
Friday, 30 November 12
IS INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON INDIA AND CHINA?
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012. October exports are 19 ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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