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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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