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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 December 12
A NEW PHASE FOR AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES - A FITCH STREET INTERVIEW
This week Matt Jamieson spoke with Andrew Colquhoun in Fitch's Asian sovereign rating team, and Vicky Melbourne, Fitch's commodity analyst based i ...
Friday, 07 December 12
SHIPPING INDUSTRY LOOKING ON YET ANOTHER TOUGH YEAR AS WE APPROACH 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most import ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
PANAMAX : THE POSITIVE VIBES IN THE ATLANTIC REMAINS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market is still depressed with dearth of cargoes and more ships. The trips from Continent to Feast fixed around USD 12k. Trips f ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commod ...
Tuesday, 04 December 12
JATENERGY SIGNS MOU FOR INDONESIAN COAL ASSET
COALspot.com - Jatenergy Limited has announced that its fully-owned Indonesian subsidiary, PT Barata Energy (BE), has signed an exclusive, non-bindi ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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