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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 December 12
69.23 PERCENT OF END-USERS ARE BELIEVE, COAL PRICES ARE IN UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for December’ 12 has gained US cents 31 per MT M-o- ...
Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the foll ...
Tuesday, 11 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA HAS LOADED 2,720,205 MT OF COAL W/E 10 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,720,205 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 10 December 2012, Newc ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
COAL SWAPS HAVE LOST DIRECTION DUE TO LACK OF ASIAN INTEREST
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 2.43 percent M-M but lost WoW by 0.54 percent and 0.62 ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
LOW DEMAND PUSHES CHARTER RATES TOWARDS DOWN - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market has softened and BDI, The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry bulk goods, plunged below 10 ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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