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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 22 December 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCED 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER' 12
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 28.1 million bcm* (+1.8% YoY) of Overburden in November 2012 while coal production was at 3.2 ...
Friday, 21 December 12
JORC CODE, 2012 EDITION NOW FINALIZED
COALspot.com - The JORC Committee has announced that, the completion of the review of the JORC Code of 2012 Edition.
The JORC Code, 2012 Ed ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
COAL CLOSING IN ON OIL AS WORLD'S TOP ENERGY SOURCE BY 2017
COALspot.com - Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’ ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger v ...
Tuesday, 18 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 20.19 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 17 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,269,640 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 17 December 2012, Newc ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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