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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 29 December 12
SHIPBREAKING YARDS IN INDIA DEMOLISH A TOTAL OF 527 VESSELS IN 2012, BREAKING ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
India's ship demolition experts of Star Matrix contemplated this week on the issue of why ships in the range of 1,000 and up to 6,500 liquid tons ( ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
A LOOK AT WORLD TRADE PATTERNS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
While China's leaders are likely to stick with the 2012 economic growth rate of 7.5% when they chart a course for 2013 - its weakest pace since 199 ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
INDONESIA SHIPPED 33.578* MMT COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 33.578* million tons of coal in November 2012. thi ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
UPDATE ON EXPORT BAN ON RAW MINERALS AND ORE - RITA SUSANTO
COALspot.com - In May 2012, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (“MoEMR”) in Regulation No.7 (“Reg-7”, amended by R ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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