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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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