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Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
 In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as this factor is among the most important ones when it comes to ship owning operating costs. According to the company's projection, 2013 average bunker prices are expected to reach $690 per ton, while by 2017, bunker costs are forecast to average $760 per ton. During 2012, the basket of bunker prices reached an all-time high of almost $750 per ton in early March. "This was influenced by an upward spike in crude oil prices combined with robust demand for power generation from various countries. Although prices have since subsided, bunker prices are anticipated to rise in the coming years. This increase will be in line with higher crude oil prices, but also tighter supplies due to secondary capacity additions and changes to the international crude slate. Tanker earnings will continue to be pressured, which will encourage owners to explore methods to boost fuel efficiency" Mcquilling Services said.
It continued by explaining its methodology noting that "in our annual Tanker Market Outlook, McQuilling Services provides a bunker price forecast using the correlation between Dated Brent and the average bunker price. Dated Brent provides a more accurate gauge of international crude oil prices as it is not subject to the local logistical issues that affect the US benchmark WTI and it is considered the global oil price benchmark. In previous editions of the Tanker Market Outlook, we noted the correlation between Dated Brent and international bunker prices has shifted upwards as tighter specifications and refinery upgrades are reducing supplies. Between 1994 and 2007, the slope remained constant but started to steepen in 2008. This trend has continued into this year’s forecasting cycle.
The report added that "in our 2012 Tanker Market Outlook, we forecast that Dated Brent would average US $105 per barrel and bunker prices US $650 per ton. Year-to-date Dated Brent has been roughly US $111 per barrel or 3% above our forecast while bunkers averaged US $675 per ton, about 4% higher than projected. Going forward we see limited upward support for international crude oil prices as the global economy is expected to remain under pressure while supplies should remain relatively ample.
Global crude production should remain supported by the expectation that output in North America will increase throughout the forecast period. Saudi Arabia will continue to be the most influential swing supplier of OPEC nations while Russian production should also continue to hover around 10 million b/d. Political risks that could result in reduced production, especially in the Middle East and North Africa will remain present. Demand growth from non-OECD economies will stay healthy throughout the forecast period which will help absorb displaced barrels, in particular from the Caribbean, as a result of rising North American crude oil production. This will support ton-mile demand in particular for the larger tanker classes" it said.
Mcquilling Serviced concluded its argument by saying that "this year’s medium term forecast anticipates that bunker prices will rise slowly over the next three years. This range bound activity will be influenced by a rising share of natural gas consumption in both industrialized and developing nations that will provide some balance to market fundamentals. The rise in the latter part of the forecast period is the result of tighter bunker fuel specifications combined with the growth in sophistication of the global downstream industry".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 55.88 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 3 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,796,341 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 December 2012, Newca ...
Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1 2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW respectively ...
Saturday, 01 December 12
TIGHT SUPPLY, DEMAND PUSH INDO-INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES HIGHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed this week as cape and Panamax indices are closing softer.
The BDI was down 0.37 pct closing at 1,086 ...
Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, i ...
Friday, 30 November 12
IS INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON INDIA AND CHINA?
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012. October exports are 19 ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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