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Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
 In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as this factor is among the most important ones when it comes to ship owning operating costs. According to the company's projection, 2013 average bunker prices are expected to reach $690 per ton, while by 2017, bunker costs are forecast to average $760 per ton. During 2012, the basket of bunker prices reached an all-time high of almost $750 per ton in early March. "This was influenced by an upward spike in crude oil prices combined with robust demand for power generation from various countries. Although prices have since subsided, bunker prices are anticipated to rise in the coming years. This increase will be in line with higher crude oil prices, but also tighter supplies due to secondary capacity additions and changes to the international crude slate. Tanker earnings will continue to be pressured, which will encourage owners to explore methods to boost fuel efficiency" Mcquilling Services said.
It continued by explaining its methodology noting that "in our annual Tanker Market Outlook, McQuilling Services provides a bunker price forecast using the correlation between Dated Brent and the average bunker price. Dated Brent provides a more accurate gauge of international crude oil prices as it is not subject to the local logistical issues that affect the US benchmark WTI and it is considered the global oil price benchmark. In previous editions of the Tanker Market Outlook, we noted the correlation between Dated Brent and international bunker prices has shifted upwards as tighter specifications and refinery upgrades are reducing supplies. Between 1994 and 2007, the slope remained constant but started to steepen in 2008. This trend has continued into this year’s forecasting cycle.
The report added that "in our 2012 Tanker Market Outlook, we forecast that Dated Brent would average US $105 per barrel and bunker prices US $650 per ton. Year-to-date Dated Brent has been roughly US $111 per barrel or 3% above our forecast while bunkers averaged US $675 per ton, about 4% higher than projected. Going forward we see limited upward support for international crude oil prices as the global economy is expected to remain under pressure while supplies should remain relatively ample.
Global crude production should remain supported by the expectation that output in North America will increase throughout the forecast period. Saudi Arabia will continue to be the most influential swing supplier of OPEC nations while Russian production should also continue to hover around 10 million b/d. Political risks that could result in reduced production, especially in the Middle East and North Africa will remain present. Demand growth from non-OECD economies will stay healthy throughout the forecast period which will help absorb displaced barrels, in particular from the Caribbean, as a result of rising North American crude oil production. This will support ton-mile demand in particular for the larger tanker classes" it said.
Mcquilling Serviced concluded its argument by saying that "this year’s medium term forecast anticipates that bunker prices will rise slowly over the next three years. This range bound activity will be influenced by a rising share of natural gas consumption in both industrialized and developing nations that will provide some balance to market fundamentals. The rise in the latter part of the forecast period is the result of tighter bunker fuel specifications combined with the growth in sophistication of the global downstream industry".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 December 12
A NEW PHASE FOR AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES - A FITCH STREET INTERVIEW
This week Matt Jamieson spoke with Andrew Colquhoun in Fitch's Asian sovereign rating team, and Vicky Melbourne, Fitch's commodity analyst based i ...
Friday, 07 December 12
SHIPPING INDUSTRY LOOKING ON YET ANOTHER TOUGH YEAR AS WE APPROACH 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most import ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
PANAMAX : THE POSITIVE VIBES IN THE ATLANTIC REMAINS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market is still depressed with dearth of cargoes and more ships. The trips from Continent to Feast fixed around USD 12k. Trips f ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commod ...
Tuesday, 04 December 12
JATENERGY SIGNS MOU FOR INDONESIAN COAL ASSET
COALspot.com - Jatenergy Limited has announced that its fully-owned Indonesian subsidiary, PT Barata Energy (BE), has signed an exclusive, non-bindi ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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