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Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
 In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as this factor is among the most important ones when it comes to ship owning operating costs. According to the company's projection, 2013 average bunker prices are expected to reach $690 per ton, while by 2017, bunker costs are forecast to average $760 per ton. During 2012, the basket of bunker prices reached an all-time high of almost $750 per ton in early March. "This was influenced by an upward spike in crude oil prices combined with robust demand for power generation from various countries. Although prices have since subsided, bunker prices are anticipated to rise in the coming years. This increase will be in line with higher crude oil prices, but also tighter supplies due to secondary capacity additions and changes to the international crude slate. Tanker earnings will continue to be pressured, which will encourage owners to explore methods to boost fuel efficiency" Mcquilling Services said.
It continued by explaining its methodology noting that "in our annual Tanker Market Outlook, McQuilling Services provides a bunker price forecast using the correlation between Dated Brent and the average bunker price. Dated Brent provides a more accurate gauge of international crude oil prices as it is not subject to the local logistical issues that affect the US benchmark WTI and it is considered the global oil price benchmark. In previous editions of the Tanker Market Outlook, we noted the correlation between Dated Brent and international bunker prices has shifted upwards as tighter specifications and refinery upgrades are reducing supplies. Between 1994 and 2007, the slope remained constant but started to steepen in 2008. This trend has continued into this year’s forecasting cycle.
The report added that "in our 2012 Tanker Market Outlook, we forecast that Dated Brent would average US $105 per barrel and bunker prices US $650 per ton. Year-to-date Dated Brent has been roughly US $111 per barrel or 3% above our forecast while bunkers averaged US $675 per ton, about 4% higher than projected. Going forward we see limited upward support for international crude oil prices as the global economy is expected to remain under pressure while supplies should remain relatively ample.
Global crude production should remain supported by the expectation that output in North America will increase throughout the forecast period. Saudi Arabia will continue to be the most influential swing supplier of OPEC nations while Russian production should also continue to hover around 10 million b/d. Political risks that could result in reduced production, especially in the Middle East and North Africa will remain present. Demand growth from non-OECD economies will stay healthy throughout the forecast period which will help absorb displaced barrels, in particular from the Caribbean, as a result of rising North American crude oil production. This will support ton-mile demand in particular for the larger tanker classes" it said.
Mcquilling Serviced concluded its argument by saying that "this year’s medium term forecast anticipates that bunker prices will rise slowly over the next three years. This range bound activity will be influenced by a rising share of natural gas consumption in both industrialized and developing nations that will provide some balance to market fundamentals. The rise in the latter part of the forecast period is the result of tighter bunker fuel specifications combined with the growth in sophistication of the global downstream industry".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 December 12
69.23 PERCENT OF END-USERS ARE BELIEVE, COAL PRICES ARE IN UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for December’ 12 has gained US cents 31 per MT M-o- ...
Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the foll ...
Tuesday, 11 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA HAS LOADED 2,720,205 MT OF COAL W/E 10 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,720,205 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 10 December 2012, Newc ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
COAL SWAPS HAVE LOST DIRECTION DUE TO LACK OF ASIAN INTEREST
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 2.43 percent M-M but lost WoW by 0.54 percent and 0.62 ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
LOW DEMAND PUSHES CHARTER RATES TOWARDS DOWN - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market has softened and BDI, The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry bulk goods, plunged below 10 ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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