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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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