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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- The University of Queensland
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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