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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 19 November 12
IHS MCCLOSKEY ASIA PACIFIC COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 2012
With the current global oversupply of thermal coal showing no signs of abating and spot prices falling to a two-year low, concerns are growing that ...
Sunday, 18 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR JANUARY 2013 DELIVERY GAINS 1.29 PERCENT WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 1.29 percent WoW and 0.25 percent DoD on Friday, 16 Novembe ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week market sentiments ended positive with all the segments ending higher except for handy size which was almost at same levels ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
RECORD DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SEEKS TO CURB TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace ...
Friday, 16 November 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON INVESTING IN SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Priced attractively, modern and with prompt delivery dates, second hand vessels are proving to be rather popular among cash-rich ship owners these d ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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