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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RISE, BUT OUTLOOK SEEN DIM ON THE BACK OF RECORD NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been under hefty pressure since the start of the year, as a result of record newbuilding deliveries and below-par demand for ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
LITTLE IMPACT FROM DISSOLUTION OF BP MIGAS ON INDONESIAN OIL & GAS COMPANIES - FITCH
Fitch Ratings has said that the recent court order to abolish the Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator, BP Migas, has minimal immediate impact ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES FIRST COAL OFF TAKE CONTRACT
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX:OEG) has announced that it has signed a coal sales contract with an Indonesian steel manufacturing compan ...
Tuesday, 20 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 13.18 PERCENT LESS COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,691,731 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 19 November 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 19 November 12
GOVT PREPARES TO FACE ANOTHER SUIT ON MINING LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is gearing up to face a complaint on the 2009 Mining Law prepared by the same organization that previously brought down upstream oil ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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