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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 55.88 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 3 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,796,341 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 December 2012, Newca ...
Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1 2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW respectively ...
Saturday, 01 December 12
TIGHT SUPPLY, DEMAND PUSH INDO-INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES HIGHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed this week as cape and Panamax indices are closing softer.
The BDI was down 0.37 pct closing at 1,086 ...
Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, i ...
Friday, 30 November 12
IS INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON INDIA AND CHINA?
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012. October exports are 19 ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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