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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 55.88 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 3 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,796,341 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 December 2012, Newca ...
Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1 2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW respectively ...
Saturday, 01 December 12
TIGHT SUPPLY, DEMAND PUSH INDO-INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES HIGHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed this week as cape and Panamax indices are closing softer.
The BDI was down 0.37 pct closing at 1,086 ...
Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, i ...
Friday, 30 November 12
IS INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON INDIA AND CHINA?
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012. October exports are 19 ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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